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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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